As apple and cherry trees burst with blooms months ahead of schedule, climate experts sound a warning
Apple and cherry trees in Southwest Virginia started blooming about three weeks ago — five months too early.
Orchard owners have seen handfuls of autumn blossoms pop open in their fields in years past, but the consensus is that early blossoming is occurring more frequently due to increasingly warmer weather. Experts say this phenomenon is tied to climate change and are concerned for the future.
Last week, orchards in Cana were quiet and empty. The harvest was over, the workers had gone home. Carroll County farmers were taking a rest before the holidays, before pruning and planting would begin anew.
The fields, though — they sat waiting, seemingly willing the season to go on. Though the calendar said mid-November, tall green grass was still growing between the trees. Immature, rosy-cheeked green apples still clung to summer-strong branches, and the trees were still covered in bright green canopies of healthy leaves. On and on this went … one row after another, one orchard after another.
There was a single row of apple trees, right next to a road. Though the orchard’s other trees were full and green, the trees in that row had begun to shed their leaves. The process was nowhere near finished, but through those bare spots, it became easier to see that these particular trees were doing something new: They were sending up crisp green growth.
The cherry trees at Ayers Orchard were mostly bare, but just a week or so prior, they had been hanging full of blossoms, according to packhouse operator Phyllis Allan, whose brother owns the orchard. She was readying things for the winter; that Saturday was the last market day until spring.
The packhouse sits on the edge of a hill. Just beneath the parking area, the cherry trees’ skeletal limbs waved their last bouquets of wilted blossoms. Swollen bulbs predicted that more blooms would be on the way, if a frost didn’t kill the buds first. Lower branches sported fresh greenery. The trees were readying themselves for spring.
These trees should have been preparing for their own winter’s nap, a period of dormancy in which cold-weather acclimated fruit trees stop growing.
“I’m not worried, yet,” said Ricky Berrier, a sixth-generation farmer who operates his family’s 171-year-old apple orchard in Carroll County. “Even 20 years ago, I would see a limb blooming this time of year,” he said, explaining that sometimes weaker trees get a little confused.
If the heat continues or blooms show up in even more apple trees, that’s a different story.
A couple of weeks ago, Bethany Schaepler’s wife, Cortney, was mowing Hill’s Orchard when she noticed blossoms here and there on the trees.
Schaepler’s father-in-law, Willie Hill, said he’d seen a few blossoms, too. But he had spoken with friends and neighbors who were experiencing entire blocks of bloom.
He ticked off the names of folks who have told him about premature blossoms over the last few weeks. Entire groups of Golden Delicious at one orchard just over the hill. Two rows of Pink Ladies had bloomed nearby, and another set of the same had broken open down in Wilkes County, North Carolina.
“For a whole lot of them to bloom? I don’t know,” he said.
When Tom McMullen has seen fall blossoms, they appear in clusters, he said — perhaps a dozen blooms per tree, not the thousands that people typically see in the spring.
“It’s not like you’re driving by and seeing a gazillion flowers,” he said, adding that the premature blooms are certainly related to the weather. McMullen co-owns Tumbling Creek Cidery along with three others; he is also a botanist.
‘Jack Frost is getting them’
Schaepler also attributed the out-of-season bloom to weather.
“We’re still very warm. I mean, right now I’m in my car running air. It’s 72 degrees,” she said Monday.
The weather in that area was unseasonably warm for much of October and into the beginning of November. There were some cold days during that period, including a freeze for some, but it wasn’t enough to trigger the trees into dormancy, when the leaves would fall and the sap would no longer pump into the tree.
This stage is critical because it protects the tree from cold weather damage. During winter freezes, fruit trees that are not dormant are at greater risk of structural damage, particularly if those trees are hanging full of blooms, said Kaden Kilgore, owner and operator of Appalachian Cider Co. in Scott County. That would impact the next year’s harvest.
These early November blooms will most certainly freeze; even if the bloom falls away, the parts of the flower that remain will be left to freeze.
“A cold spell comes in and hits those buds and kills them. Then you get some frost damage. You won’t have any apples on those buds. The blooms in the springtime — those buds won’t bloom then,” Kilgore said.
“Jack Frost is getting them regardless,” Kilgore said.
One bloom isn’t a problem. Neither is a dozen. A treeful? A row? A block? What is the point of tolerance?
Apple trees respond to changes in temperature in order to fall into the dormant state, according to Virginia Tech researcher Sherif Sherif, who studies ways to boost fruit tree production and mitigate frost damage at the Alson H. Smith Jr. Agricultural Research and Extension Center in Winchester.
December, February and March were all warmer than average last winter. McMullen attributes the blooms farmers are seeing now to that warmth.
Every variety of apple tree needs a specific cumulative number of chill hours — hours spent below 45 degrees Fahrenheit — in order to produce fruit. Apple growers in this state tend to grow varieties that need between 800 and 1,100 chill hours.
The calculations become increasingly complex depending on the precise temperature of the orchard’s location. Trees perform better at some temperatures than others, and everything really depends on the variety.
Fruit trees that do not receive enough chill time during the winter months are adversely affected, according to research published in The Texas Horticulturist by Texas A&M researchers David Byrne and Terry Bacon. In conducting their research on peach trees, they found that insufficient chilling led to delayed foliation. When leaves appeared, they were only on the tips of the tree branches during the season following the affected year, and those branches appeared to be weakened.
As with the foliage, blooms were delayed in appearing following winters with insufficient chilling, the researchers found. At other times, the bloom season may have been extended, with blooms appearing throughout the autumn. When this occurred, the fruit failed to develop into full-sized fruit.
Finally, the fruit quality itself was reduced, they wrote.
“It’s kind of like jet lag for a human. It can really mess you up, you don’t know what’s going on, right?” McMullen said.
Not getting enough chill hours does the same thing for a tree. As Berrier would say, “It confuses it.”
“We still have a kind of winter that is cold enough to achieve the chilling requirement for most of our deciduous trees,” Sherif said. This includes apples and stone fruits.
“It is a concern for some southern states, like Georgia, Florida. With the warm winter, they might have some issue with achieving the chilling requirement, but not us,” Sherif said.
Sherif is more concerned that farmers will continue to follow their traditional pruning schedules without regard to the state of their trees.
Farmers absolutely should not prune their fruit trees until they are positive that the trees are dormant, he said — and the trees currently are not dormant. Any Virginia farmer who is planning to prune their trees right now should wait, Sherif repeated adamantly.
Trees that are pruned before they are acclimated to the cold will have a greater risk of suffering extensive damage from a hard freeze or a hard frost. That alone would jeopardize future crops.
While this may seem to be advice for novice gardeners, pruning an entire orchard is a big job, one that requires a team of employees and a couple of months’ time to complete. To prune Berrier Farms’ 20,000 trees, a team of eight must complete 400 trees a day. It takes about two months.
Farmers hire crews of seasonal workers to help out. Once employees arrive on the farm, they must work 40 hours a week. A farm with no chores is dead in the water.
The impacts of Hurricane Helene
This is the second time in a matter of months that farmers have needed to realign their traditional farming calendars to align with Mother Nature.
At the end of September, the remnants of Hurricane Helene rushed through the state. Twenty-one Southwest Virginia counties reported suffering agricultural damages in the weeks following the storm, according to a report compiled by the Virginia Cooperative Extension.
In Carroll County, a declared disaster area, Cana farmers found rows and rows full of fallen apples — the ground was so covered in fruit that you could hardly walk from one tree to the next.
“It hampers your picking when everything’s on the ground,” Berrier said.
Berrier left the apples to act as fertilizer for next year’s crop. Other farmers swept them into a pile, like the one at Ayers Orchard, where a massive hill of apples rots into compost. The heap smells like the strongest apple cider anyone will ever encounter.
Berrier had a block of Golden Delicious that he had half picked before the storm; that half totaled about 1,500 bushels. After the storm, his crews picked only 20 bushels from the remaining half of the block. A smaller harvest meant fewer days in the fields and fewer days in the packhouse. He kept his seasonal employees on as long as he could, he said. Still, the packhouse employees lost a couple of weeks of work at the end of the season.
According to Virginia Cooperative Extension data released Nov. 7, Southwest Virginia apple farmers suffered an estimated $836,175 in direct losses from Helene — the losses immediately attributable to the storm, a number that includes apples that could not be sold from wind-related fruit drop, damage and loss from power outages, said extension agent Ashley Edwards.
Farmers lost the apples that fell from their trees. They lost the ones that were banged around, bounced into each other and left too battered to be sold. They lost limbs; they lost entire trees.
Depending on which varieties they grow, Carroll County apple farmers lost 25% to 50% of their crop during the storm, Edwards said. Their direct losses totaled $617,000, or nearly 74% of the state’s total estimated direct losses to apple farmers.
Virginia Tech agricultural economist John Bovay found that Helene’s current estimable indirect effect on apple farmers is likely between $1.2 million and $2.8 million, in addition to more than $1.4 million attributable to direct losses and future losses.
On Tuesday, Gov. Glenn Youngkin submitted a request to President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump and Congressional appropriators for $4.4 billion in additional support for recovery efforts. The request includes $630 million to repair and rebuild agricultural producers.
‘It was just warm all along’
But still, the weather still won’t cooperate. The farmers seem to be taking it in stride, saying all will be well. The elders reassure the younger generation: This has all happened before.
Bert Drake, emeritus scientist and plant physiologist at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, has been plant-watching for over 40 years. He pioneered a decades-long research project that sought to understand how plants react to temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations.
He didn’t specifically study apple trees, instead focusing more generally on the nation’s crops and crops around the world. He wanted to know how the foods we rely on would react to rising carbon dioxide concentrations. It turns out, plants don’t mind higher carbon dioxide, he said.
The problem comes when the concentration of the greenhouse gas causes the temperatures to climb, which is what he believes we are seeing now. Many crops that we depend on don’t do well when exposed to high heat for long periods of time, he said, referring to temperatures of about 90 degrees.
If those high temperatures eventually encroach too far into Southwest Virginia’s winter, then the apple trees will not meet their required chilling hours.
“Winter isn’t nearly as long. It’s shortened on both ends,” Drake said.
Early springs induce flowers blooming too early in the spring, thus becoming susceptible to frost, Sherif said.
This is what Ayers Orchard encountered last year, said Phyllis Allan.
“It was just warm all along. We had one frost we thought would surely kill them, but it didn’t.” Allan said of the fruit trees.
“What’s hurting, is they’re blooming about a month or so early. In February, if the blooms start, you can forget about it,” she said.
Once the danger of frost passed, the fruit all ripened earlier than expected, Allan said. Cherries started early in May. Peaches came two to three weeks early, in June. Then apples continued that trend on through, starting on the backs of the peaches.
Drake sees environmental trends such as irregular tree blossoms as key indicators of what a region’s climate may look like not so many years into the future.
“We can only see [changes] in retrospect because it’s been so slow. When we see the trends, it’s very clear now that things have changed a great deal,” he said.
According to the 2022 State Climate Summary released by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Virginia’s temperatures have increased by more than 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of the 20th century.
While the state climate summary report recognizes that temperatures in the more mountainous regions tend to be cooler than other parts of the state, data from the U.S. Climate Divisional Database shows that the average minimum temperature in Carroll County is on an upward trajectory.
“Everything has moved north, and it’s moving north in a fairly regular fashion. During the American Revolution, the climate of Richmond, Virginia, was similar to present-day Toronto,” Drake said.
“One of the things we clearly showed with our study was that the increase in crop productivity, or in the growth of plants, is overwhelmed by increases in temperature.
“If I was a farmer, my whole existence depended upon growing apples, I would take that as a warning that that future is not to be had. Doesn’t have a good outlook for me,” Drake said.
Cardinal News weather journalist Kevin Myatt contributed information to this story.
The post As apple and cherry trees burst with blooms months ahead of schedule, climate experts sound a warning appeared first on Cardinal News.