FINAL REPORT: Most expensive race in history of Wis Legislature sits at $7 mil+
Since the opening of a loophole that allows Wisconsin political parties to raise and distribute unlimited amounts, the record has been broken many times. A race in the northern Milwaukee suburbs set it this year.
By Peter Cameron, THE BADGER PROJECT
The fundraising in the race for 8th Senate District has blown past the previous record for most expensive race in the history of the Wisconsin State Legislature.
In a perfect storm of the Wisconsin State Legislature becoming competitive this year after the end of Republican gerrymandering and the state Democratic Party’s huge advantage in fundraising, a total of nine races have broken the previous record for most expensive race in the state legislature, previously set in 2020.
But the campaign cash in the 8th Senate District towers above all others.
Republican state Sen. Duey Stroebel and his Democratic opponent, attorney Jodi Habush Sinykin — running for the hyper-competitive 8th Senate District, which includes the northern Milwaukee suburbs of Grafton, Menomonee Falls and Whitefish Bay — have raised more than $7 million combined, nearly double the next highest. But that total comes with a large asterisk. Most of the $5.2 million Habush Sinykin has raised came from one source: the state Democratic Party.
THE MOST EXPENSIVE RACES IN THE HISTORY OF THE WISCONSIN STATE LEGISLATURE
| YEAR | DISTRICT | RAISED | LOCATION |
| 2024 | SENATE 8th | $7,119,902 | northern Milwaukee suburbs |
| 2024 | SENATE 14th | $4,169,029 | much of Richland, Sauk and Columbia counties north of Dane County |
| 2024 | SENATE 30th | $4,014,911 | Green Bay and surrounding areas |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 21st | $3,349,656 | southern Milwaukee County |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 61st | $3,323,417 | southwestern Milwaukee County |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 89th | $2,759,425 | western Green Bay suburbs |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 30th | $2,701,672 | Hudson and River Falls |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 85th | $2,505,556 | Wausau and surrounding areas |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 53rd | $2,471,297 | Neenah and Menasha |
| 2020 | SENATE 8th | $2,441,483 | |
| 2020 | SENATE 30th | $2,269,214 | |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 88th | $2,240,193 | eastern Green Bay suburbs including De Pere |
| 2020 | SENATE 32nd | $2,212,270 | |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 94th | $2,139,415 | northern La Crosse suburbs |
| 2024 | ASSEMBLY 26th | $1,925,778 | Sheboygan and surrounding areas |
| 2020 | SENATE 24th | $1,906,723 | |
| 2024 | SENATE 18th | $1,653,101 | Oshkosh and Appleton |
| 2022 | ASSEMBLY 94th | $1,591,031 | |
| 2018 | SENATE 17th | $1,476,981 | |
| 2022 | SENATE 31st | $1,418,454 |
The attorney from Whitefish Bay has only raised about $700,000 from donors outside the state party. Her father, the prominent Milwaukee-area attorney Robert L. Habush, has given nearly $800,000 to the state Democratic Party in this election cycle.
Stroebel has raised a total of nearly $1.9 million, with more than $1.1 million coming from the state Republican Party. He also donated $200,000 to his own campaign.
The route for that massive party support comes through a loophole in campaign finance law in Wisconsin.
Individuals, other candidates and political action committees can only give a candidate for state Senate $2,000 per election cycle, according to state campaign finance law.
But due to a 2014 U.S. Supreme Court case called McCutcheon v. FEC and inaction by the Republican-controlled state Legislature, no limits exist on political parties receiving or distributing political cash.
So billionaires like ABC Supply co-founder Diane Hendricks, ULINE co-founder Elizabeth Uihlein, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and Hyatt Hotells heir and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker have repeatedly used the loophole to funnel huge sums to their preferred party. They have all given millions of dollars to Wisconsin political parties in this election cycle alone.
Thus campaign spending has exploded in state races since the opening of the loophole, leading to airwaves and mailboxes jammed ever more full with political advertising each election.
Democrats in the state Legislature have offered bills to close that loophole, but the Republican majority has ignored them. So Democrats have taken a different tactic in recent elections: using the loophole to their advantage. The state party has raised nearly $57 million in the 2024 election cycle, compared to just $29 million for the state Republican Party.
That translates into major advertising advantages for Democrats in tight state legislative races across the state.
They hope it will allow them to take back the state Legislature for the first time in more than a decade.
The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.
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FINAL REPORT: Most expensive race in history of Wis Legislature sits at $7 mil+ was first posted on November 4, 2024 at 5:00 am.
Rust Belt voters aren’t all white, but election coverage of the region often ignores the concerns of people of color there
Every four years, national media turn their attention to the Rust Belt, a term that describes Midwestern industrial and manufacturing states whose economies were decimated by the decline of those industries in the 1970s. This region contains the coveted states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Many rural parts of these states have a majority of white residents. The broader Rust Belt, however, also has long and important Black and Indigenous histories and contains some of the nation’s fastest-growing minority populations – in particular Latino, Arab and Asian communities.
Yet when reporters descend on the rural Rust Belt to understand voters, the people they talk to are almost exclusively white.
I am a geographer who studies the experiences of communities of color in the rural Rust Belt. Rural is a relative term, but when it comes to policy research, it usually refers to nonmetropolitan areas. From 2021 to 2023, I interviewed 35 people who live or lived in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Indiana and identified as Black, Indigenous or people of color.
I found that these Rust Belt residents have pressing concerns of political importance. Some of these issues are shared by white residents – and, as such, are well documented. But Rust Belt residents of color have additional problems that politicians and the media have long overlooked.
Local impacts
My interviewees described typical rural Rust Belt struggles.
They complained of limited internet access, few or no grocery stores, declining roads and other infrastructure-related challenges. Jobs and opportunities for career advancement were scarce in their communities, while death and suicide rates were high.
These difficulties are faced by white Rust Belt residents as well. But other struggles they mentioned are less often considered part of the rural experience.
They described feeling socially isolated and discriminated against at work and school. Many had experienced racial or ethnic profiling by potential employers and police and been verbally harassed.
One man, Miguel, who worked in carpentry, said his colleagues openly used racial slurs against him.
“I was putting away some boxes, and they said, ‘Oh that’s because you w–backs are good at packing things in trucks,’” he told me.
All names used here are pseudonyms; research ethics require me to protect the identity of my subjects.
“A lot gets brushed under the rug,” said Bao, a Vietnamese American woman whose father also works in a hostile environment. “All the management folks are white,” so “if you speak up, you lose your job or are ignored.”
These comments conveyed an overall sense of not “belonging.”
As one woman from rural Pennsylvania explained, people regularly ask her, “No, really, where you from?”
“They want to hear ‘Asian’ or ‘Korean,’” she said. “It’s very uncomfortable for me.”
These racial tensions worsen during election periods. Some people I interviewed reported having been turned away or threatened at voting stations – harassment they attributed to their religious, cultural and political backgrounds, or the way they looked.
Many Rust Belt voters of color already lack political power because they live in racially gerrymandered districts. When news coverage of the region ignores their voices, too, it compounds that feeling of not belonging.
In 2017, The Washington Post visited the small town of Jefferson, Ohio, in Ashtabula County, to interview voters described as “rural Americans who fear they’re being forgotten” after Donald Trump’s election. Their coverage focused almost exclusively on white residents.
“How did you go to Ashtabula County and not see Black people?” asked Belle, a resident who identified as African American.
Not always Republican
In the past three presidential elections, Ashtabula County has followed state trends: It backed Obama in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Trump won Ashtabula with 60% of the vote in 2020. That’s 26,890 votes, which means that 16,497 people still voted for Democrat Joe Biden. In the years since, Ashtabula County residents have also voted with the state in two Democratic-backed initiatives: to protect abortion rights and legalize marijuana.
In other words, just because a state or district backs a Republican for president doesn’t mean everyone is Republican, or that Republican voters always vote the party line. They can split their votes, and have.
Even Ohio’s largely Republican delegation in the House of Representatives is misleading about the state’s political makeup. Ohio is a heavily gerrymandered state where voting districts have been drawn to benefit Republican candidates.
U.S. Senate elections show more diversity in Ohio’s voting base.
In 2018, Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown won 53% of all votes in Ohio, including 51% of those cast in Ashtabula County. Four years later, both the state and Ashtabula County picked Republican JD Vance over Democrat Tim Ryan to replace the outgoing Republican Sen. Rob Portman.
Why it matters
In September 2024, Vance – now Trump’s vice presidential running mate – claimed that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were kidnapping and eating cats and dogs. After Trump echoed that false claim on the debate stage, the city got 30-plus bomb threats and other threats of violence, and had to close multiple schools.
During the pandemic, Trump’s derogatory branding of COVID-19 as the “Chinese virus” and “Kung Flu” led to increased hate crimes against immigrants and people of color.
In my interviews, several participants mentioned how local restaurants and stores owned by Asian Americans had been vandalized. One woman, Lanh, who lived outside Springfield, said her favorite restaurant had to close.
“They started vandalizing the restaurant, writing graffiti and set the restaurant on fire,” she said.
The owners were from Thailand, but, Lanh said, the vandals “thought they were Chinese. Folks around the local community like my parents didn’t feel safe,” she added. “I didn’t feel safe.”
Hateful political rhetoric is known to increase hate crimes against immigrants and people of color.
When the Rust Belt is stereotyped as red and white, such experiences go unheard.
So do some good news stories.
The emergence of Black-owned bee farms in northeast Ohio, for instance, is one small example in a host of businesses started by people of color. Together, they are helping to boost the region’s beleaguered economy, much as Haitian immigrants have been fueling Springfield’s growth.
Rural America is nuanced
Nationwide, 24% of rural Americans identified as people of color in the 2020 census.
That figure is probably low because the census tends to undercount nonwhite respondents – a problem that was particularly evident in 2020. Even so, that’s a quarter of rural residents who don’t fit the national stereotype of rural America.
Rural America is white and Republican. It’s also trans, queer, Black, Hispanic, Indigenous, South Asian, Democratic and much more. Even if some are Republican, they still aren’t the rural Rust Belt Republicans portrayed in the national media.
Ignoring these nuances reinforces stereotypes that the rural Rust Belt is the exclusive domain of white conservativism. But this region isn’t now, and never has been, simply red and white.
Christabel Devadoss received funding from the American Council of Learned Societies (ACLS).
Rep. Steil vastly outraising Barca in race for SE Wisconsin congressional seat
Facing his first serious challenge since he was elected in 2018, U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil has fundraised more than double that of Democratic challenger and veteran politician Pete Barca.
By Peter Cameron, THE BADGER PROJECT
U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil has raised more than $5.3 million through mid-October, according to his last mandatory campaign finance report before the election. That dwarves the campaign haul of his Democratic challenger Pete Barca, who has raised nearly $2 million.
Steil reported spending nearly $4.6 million, while Barca reported spending nearly $1.9 million.
Notably, Steil had more than $2.3 million on hand for the final weeks of the campaign, compared to a relatively measly $133,000 for Barca. Candidates can continue fundraising through the election.
The two men are running to represent the 1st Congressional District, which stretches from Beloit and Janesville in the west to Racine and Kenosha in the east.
Steil, 43, from Janesville, first won the seat in 2018 after its former holder, then-Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, retired. Like most incumbents, he has been fundraising for this campaign since the election cycle started nearly two years ago.
Barca, a 69-year-old Kenosha native, is an experienced politician, and well-known in the district. He didn’t enter the race, and start fundraising, until the spring. He held this congressional seat for one term in 1993-1994, and later served as the Assembly Minority Leader for several terms.
Signaling a competitive race, huge sums of cash have been dumped into the district.
Barca received large donations from many individuals, including Kevin Conroy, CEO of Exact Sciences and attorney and former state Rep. Dana Wachs.
Mark Ruffalo, the Oscar-nominated actor who plays the Hulk and is also from Kenosha, gave $3,300 to Barca.
An individual can donate a max of $3,300 to a congressional candidate per election, according to federal law. Since candidates must run in a primary and a general election, individuals can give $6,600 per election cycle.
Political action committees, as long as they are donating to multiple candidates, can give congressional candidates $5,000 per election for a total of $10,000 per election cycle.
Steil sits on the Financial Services committee in the U.S. House, where policy and bills on that topic are shaped before going to the full body for votes. So it’s no surprise that the PACs of many large banks, including Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and BMO, have made the maximum $10,000 donation to his campaign, according to his campaign financial reports.
Steil has also received the maximum donation from many PACs of big businesses in other fields, including Comcast, Deloitte and Koch Industries.
And AIPAC, one of the most prominent pro-Israel lobbying organizations in the U.S., also gave Steil a large donation.
These figures do not include the spending and advertising being done by independent groups trying to influence the race in the district.
By raising so much cash, Steil is taking no chances.
The Cook Political Report rates the race “Likely Republican,” meaning it is not considered competitive at this point but has the potential to become so.
The district became friendlier to Democrats in the 2021 redistricting process, as Beloit and half of the college town of Whitewater were moved into the district, and parts of Waukesha County were moved out.
But Steil — pronounced “style” — still easily won the more competitive district in 2022. He faces a stiffer challenge this time in the veteran Barca.
Neither faced competition in the primary election. Barca got nearly 60,000 votes in the primary compared to about 52,000 for Steil, more evidence that the race could be competitive. Republicans note that Democrats spent heavily to get their voters out in that primary to defeat two ballot questions.
Democrats have put the district in their Red to Blue program that targets flippable seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the U.S. House.
THE ISSUES
Both candidates have a long list of priorities, and the pair have similar stances on issues like public safety, border security, working to lower prices and supporting veterans in the right-leaning district.
But the candidates differ on partisan issues like abortion, with each candidate taking his party’s side in the debate. Steil also stresses the Second Amendment on his campaign website, as well as the importance of cutting government spending to reduce the debt and deficit.
Barca notes traditional liberal values of worker rights, reproductive freedom and affordable health care on his campaign website. But running in a pink district, he also stresses support for bipartisanship and other centrist positions.
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The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.
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Rep. Steil vastly outraising Barca in race for SE Wisconsin congressional seat was first posted on October 30, 2024 at 10:27 am.
Dem doc outraising Trump-endorsed Wied in race for NE Wisconsin House seat
$12 mil & counting: The most expensive race in the history of western Wisconsin
Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke have raised a record $12 million as they run neck and neck in the race for the 3rd Congressional District.
By Maggie Zale, THE BADGER PROJECT
With nearly $12 million combined, Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden and Democratic opponent Rebecca Cooke have raised not only the most of any U.S. House race in Wisconsin this election cycle, but also the most in the history of the 3rd Congressional District, according to an analysis by The Badger Project.
The highly contested 3rd in western Wisconsin includes La Crosse, Eau Claire, Stevens Point and Platteville.
The Republican incumbent has reported raising more than $6.6 million through Oct. 16, according to his final campaign report to the Federal Elections Commission before the election. Cooke reported raising $5.3 million in the same time frame. That sets a record for the most expensive race in the district’s history, breaking the previous record set in 2022.
Van Orden has about $1 million on hand for the final three weeks of the election, while Cooke has about $360,000 remaining, according to their reports. Candidates can continue fundraising through the election.
Van Orden has received $6,600, the maximum legal donation from an individual, from several people, including billionaire right-wing megadonor Richard Uihlein, the co-founder of the shipping supplies company ULINE.
He has also received $10,000, the maximum allowable donation from a political action committee, from the PACs of several big agricultural businesses including CHS and the American Crystal Sugar Company.
Cooke has received the maximum $6,600 donation from Laurie Murphy of De Pere, William Cary of Richland Center, Hillary Gabrieli of Boston, Agnes Gund of New York City, Kent Bennett of Newton Hihghlands, Massachusetts and Anna Sinaiko of Newton, Massachusetts.
Van Orden is a former Navy SEAL who was narrowly defeated for the seat in 2020 before winning in 2022.
From Eau Claire, Cooke describes herself as “a small business owner, non-profit leader and waitress.”
She also ran for the seat in 2022, earning more than 31% of the vote in a crowded Democratic primary, but lost to state Sen. Brad Pfaff, who won with nearly 39% of the vote.
Van Orden then defeated Pfaff in the general election by 2.7 points — 51.8% to 48.1% — in a race that surprised many for its closeness.
Van Orden ran behind Donald Trump, who won the 3rd Congressional District by 4.7 points in 2020 while losing Wisconsin.
In Van Orden’s 2022 race, the two candidates raised more than $8 million, which set the record at the time for the most expensive race in the 3rd Congressional District.
Most of that $8 million went to Van Orden, as national Democrats paid little attention to a race they thought was not competitive. Pfaff raised less than $2 million.
This time, with help from outside the state, the Democratic candidate has been well-funded, as Cooke has raised nearly as much as the Republican incumbent.
The race has attracted attention nationally as Democrats see the seat as one they can flip to help retake the majority, and Republicans spend heavily to defend it.
At times, the Republican incumbent has not helped his cause in this politically moderate district. Earlier this year, Van Orden compared the judge presiding over Trump’s hush-money fraud trial to an obscure Nazi judge, called him “Communist Scum,” posted a U.S. flag adorned with the Soviet hammer and sickle, and equated President Joe Biden to murderous dictators including Adolf Hitler.
He was fined for bringing a handgun in his carry-on luggage when trying to board a plane at the Cedar Rapids airport, which he said was a mistake. The congressman also has reportedly had verbal outbursts against a teen library worker in Prairie du Chien over a gay pride display and against teen pages at the U.S. Capitol who were lying on the floor taking photos of the dome.
And Van Orden attended Trump’s election rally on Jan. 6, 2021 in Washington D.C. that led to an attack on the U.S. Capitol. Van Orden said he left when protestors started fighting with police at the capitol before breaking inside.
Cooke has branded herself a “political outsider,” but she has worked as a fundraiser for several Democratic races in the past, and ran a political consulting firm, which took in nearly $200,000 for its work with several political committees and campaigns.
Polling in the district has been sporadic and partisan, but polls have shown leads for both candidates. The Cook Political Report rates the race “Lean Republican,” meaning it is considered competitive, though the GOP has an advantage.
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The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.
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$12 mil & counting: The most expensive race in the history of western Wisconsin was first posted on October 28, 2024 at 5:27 pm.
Wausau couple files complaint against clerk alleging drop box irregularities
By Shereen Siewert
A Wausau couple has filed a complaint with the Wisconsin Elections Commission alleging that the city’s official drop box does not meet state standards, according to documents obtained by Wausau Pilot & Review.
Steven and Marie Schmidt filed the complaint Oct. 10 with the WEC, which has since acknowledged receipt of the document. In their official statement, the couple said they also submitted their concerns on Oct. 2 in a PDF document that was not included in the Oct. 8 Wausau City Council meeting packet. That omission is prompting the Republican Party of Marathon County to call for the dismissal of City Clerk Kaitlyn Bernarde, Chair Kevin Hermening wrote.
The WEC on Oct. 23 acknowledged receipt of the complaint. Bernarde has until Nov. 11 to respond. If a response is received, the Schmidts will have an additional 13 days to submit a final reply.
Wausau Mayor Doug Diny in September removed the locked drop box from outside City Hall, action that made headlines nationwide and prompted a federal criminal investigation. The box, which Bernarde had plans to formally install one day later, has since been returned and is now operational.
The Schmidts’ complaint accuses Bernarde of not following appropriate rules and procedures when installing the drop box, which also accepts tax payments and other forms of communication for the city. After a July state Supreme Court ruling allowing the drop boxes, the Wisconsin Elections Commission issued guidance to the state’s roughly 1,800 municipal clerks recommending more than a dozen security practices related to the boxes.
The instructions, which are not hard rules, include that they be “affixed to the ground or the side of the building,” “sturdy enough to withstand the elements,” “located in a well-lit area,” “equipped with unique locks or seals” and “emptied often.”
The commission recommended that clerks keep a record of the times and dates of retrieval, number of ballots retrieved and the names of the people doing the retrieving.
The group also referred clerks to federal guidelines.
The complainants point out that Wausau’s box has an opening that is larger than recommended, accepts more than just absentee ballots, is not clearly marked as a ballot box and does not include a posted time of final ballot retrieval. They also point out that the box is not in a well-lit area, and complain that Diny’s request for $3,000 to fund lighting and a new camera for the box was dismissed by the council earlier this month, a decision he could have made unilaterally.
Diny also pointed out that the box had not yet been firmly secured to the concrete at the time he removed it from outside City Hall, citing that as a basis for its removal. But the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision did not provide guidance on what it means for a drop box to be secure, according to information from Joel DeSpain, of the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
“The Commission recommends that clerks keep the following non-exhaustive security considerations in mind when planning to utilize drop boxes, which are consistent with guidance from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA),” the WEC guidance states. “These considerations are merely a starting point—the Commission recommends that clerks thoroughly complete a security assessment for each intended drop box location prior to deployment.”
Some council members say Diny’s funding request was yet another way to politicize the argument surrounding the drop box. Diny can make such purchases without council approval but did not do so in the weeks and months leading into the controversy. City Council President Lisa Rasmussen said last month that council members were unwilling to be placed in a position to operate beyond their authority.
“The finance director advised the mayor he did not need council approval, there was funding and no modification to any budget was needed,” Rasmussen told WSAU. “We should not be asked to decide issues that do not require our approval just to give him political cover.”
Legal and election experts say the guidance for clerks regarding drop box placement, signage and usage is just that – guidance – not hard, set rules. That means the “violations” pointed out by the Schmidts in their complaint violate guidance only, not state election law, raising questions about what – if any – action can be taken by the WEC.
Bernarde did not respond to requests for comment. Information provided by DeSpain in response to an email from Wausau Pilot pointed again to guidance, not state law.
On Friday, Diny told Wausau Pilot he was unaware of the complaint and had been in Madison for a League of Municipalities Annual Conference, where he found “overwhelming support from leaders statewide.”
Diny is facing potential federal charges amid a Wisconsin Department of Justice investigation that launched last month. An Oct. 16 search warrant, obtained by Wausau Pilot & Review, authorized agents to seize Diny’s computer and cell phone as well as his wife’s phone. Agents are searching for evidence dating back to April 1, prior to his swearing-in as mayor “because evidence in this case suggests the drop box discussion initiated” before he took office, documents state.
The DOJ does not comment on pending investigations and there is no set timeline as to when a charging decision will be made.
Diny, in an email Friday, said he has not had any communication with the DOJ since Oct. 16.
The Wisconsin Department of Justice is spearheading the Diny investigation. The DOJ typically handles federal law violations, while local district attorneys focus on state law violations.
College students could determine who wins Wisconsin — and the White House
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- Republicans and Democrats are looking to college as a key part of their strategy for electing their presidential and Senate candidates with the candidates making several appearances on college campuses in Wisconsin.
- College students voting in their first presidential election are slightly more conservative than their older counterparts, but there’s also a growing gender gap with women more likely to support Democrats.
- A new College Democrats chapter at Madison College seeks to mobilize more students on a campus that often gets overlooked.
With Election Day squarely in view, both Democrats and Republicans have shifted their focus to turning out every possible voter — including first-time presidential election voters on college campuses.
Every vote matters in Wisconsin. The last two presidential races in this critical battleground state have each been decided by about 21,000 votes, or 1%. And next week’s contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could be even closer, with polls in Wisconsin and other battleground states suggesting there’s little daylight separating the rivals.
Those margins of victory happen to be less than half the number of students currently enrolled at just UW-Madison. It’s also just a fraction of the more than 160,000 four-year students at UW System campuses and Marquette University as of the start of the 2024-25 academic year — and that doesn’t include the thousands of other students who attend smaller private institutions spread across Wisconsin.
Many of those students come from out of state, establish residency on or near campus and are eligible to vote — establishing a bulky pool of potential voters for campaigns to target. On UW System campuses in 2023, for example, some 51,000 students were from states other than Wisconsin. As of the start of this school year, 57% of Marquette’s 11,300 non-international students were from out of state.
College students could be the margin maker in the presidential race. With eight days to go, both sides are responding accordingly.
Democrats invest in college campuses
Trudging through a hilly Madison neighborhood, Joey Wendtland and Ty Schanhofer, a pair of UW-Madison students, were on a mission: Win votes for Democrats.
Earnestly, the two, along with a small group of other student volunteers, knocked on doors up and down the streets immediately west of the university’s towering football stadium in a neighborhood home to a mixture of students and non-students.
Each encounter with a resident followed the same formula: Do you have plans to vote? Who are you voting for? What issues do you care about most? Here’s where Kamala Harris stands on them.
“Three votes per ward was the difference in 2020,” Wendtland told one voter as he implored her to get three friends to vote — a nod to President Joe Biden’s narrow victory in the state four years ago.
Democrats are investing heavily this year in turning out students on college campuses. The Wisconsin Democratic coordinated campaign, a collaboration between the Harris campaign and the state Democratic Party, has seven full-time organizers dedicated to college campuses across Wisconsin in addition to a youth organizing director, a Harris campaign official told Wisconsin Watch. Many of those organizers have been on campuses since the fall of 2023, looking to build relationships with local College Democrats chapters, student volunteers and allied student organizations.
Over the past year, the coordinated campaign has also been experimenting with a “relational organizing program,” the official said. Using a smartphone app, students are able to import their existing contacts and communicate with their friends, sharing material from a content library of premade, Wisconsin-specific infographics, videos and even memes about Harris and the presidential race.
Peer-to-peer organizing is the most effective way to motivate college voters, several student activists told Wisconsin Watch.
“The most effective way to get young people on your side — and what we’ve seen in the past election cycles — is just young people talking to young people,” said Matthew Lehner, chair of College Democrats of Wisconsin and a senior at UW-Eau Claire.
College students are better able to engage with other college students because they care about the same issues, he added, pointing to climate change, gun control, increasing the minimum wage and abortion rights as issues that many young people have shared views on.
Wendtland, a senior and chair of College Democrats of UW-Madison, said it was critical to “meet students where they’re at” and “talk to them about the issues they care about.”
But it’s also important “to generate that enthusiasm among our student base,” he said.
UW-Madison College Democrats has hosted events with prominent Madison-area Democrats, like U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan and state Rep. Francesca Hong, to get people excited about next week’s election, Wendtland said. The group has also hosted more casual events, including bingo nights and bracelet-making events, to provide a forum for students to gather and get energized about the Democratic ticket.
Democrats are also hoping to make inroads on campuses that haven’t been front of mind in past elections. A College Democrats chapter was formed last spring at Madison Area Technical College and now has around 50 members, according to Kai Brito, a founding member of the student organization.
In previous election cycles, Brito said, he and other students at MATC felt like they had been forgotten and that they didn’t have a voice in politics.
“But now we’re saying, ‘No, we do.’ And I think it’s really important when you have someone taking the lead and saying, “Yeah, we have a voice, and we’re going to use it,’” he said. “I think we’re going to have hopefully a much higher turnout than we would have if we didn’t exist, because we’re keeping the conversation alive on campus.”
College Republicans push forward, face hurdles
Even during a busy afternoon on the campus, few students approached the College Republicans table at UW-Madison, an overwhelmingly liberal campus. A pair of students snagged Trump signs, and others accepted fliers for an upcoming event with U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde. One student, who said he studies nuclear engineering, stopped to talk about Trump’s nuclear policy.
Getting students to vote Republican is more of an uphill battle on typically liberal college campuses. Undeterred, conservative student groups on campuses like UW-Madison and UW-Eau Claire press on with their efforts to appeal to young voters.
“A lot of the voters that we’re trying to get aren’t people who typically vote Democrat, but people who just typically don’t vote,” said Tatiana Bobrowicz, president of the UW-Eau Claire College Republicans.
In Madison, the student group has set up a table on campus nearly every day in the weeks leading up to the election. Thomas Pyle, a college senior and chair of the UW-Madison College Republicans, said their efforts have been greeted by glares and even protesters in years past. Bobrowicz said students passing by their table on UW-Eau Claire’s campus have flipped them off and harassed them.
“Among Republicans, it’s more difficult, especially here at UW-Madison,” Pyle told Wisconsin Watch. “Having your voice heard, feeling comfortable in your vote and what you believe is really difficult when you’re surrounded by people who disagree with you.”
Turning Point Action, College Republicans of America, Young Republicans, the American Conservation Coalition and Trump Force 47 are among the larger conservative groups that have been active across Wisconsin’s campuses this year. Student groups also draw funding and support from their county GOPs, the Republican Party of Wisconsin and the Tommy Thompson Center on Public Leadership.
“It’s really the lose by less mentality,” Hilario Deleon, 23, chair of the Milwaukee County Republican Party, said of college voters. “We’re not going to win areas like Milwaukee outright, we’re not going to win Dane County outright, but if we increase our voter percentage even by a few points, we win the state.”
Young people are concerned about jobs and the economy, making Trump an attractive candidate, according to Pyle. The Democratic Party “demonizes” young men, and they don’t feel welcome, Deleon said, adding that Trump’s message resonates with college students in the workforce.
“I think it’s gotten the attention of a lot of students, especially those who work in the service industry with the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime,” Deleon said, referencing Trump’s proposals. “That’s huge. That’s a huge win for young voters.”
Bobrowicz said she and her colleagues are trying to make Republican politics more fun, akin to how young women have engaged with the Harris campaign through the vice president’s appearance on Alex Cooper’s “Call Her Daddy” podcast and Charli XCX campaign merch. From friendship bracelets to catchy stickers, the GOP Eau Claire campus group is trying to make its conservative message appealing to young women.
Meanwhile, Trump appeals to young men on his own, Bobrowicz said.
“(Trump’s) personality is a personality that attracts young men. He has that business-like personality,” she told Wisconsin Watch in an interview. “You can tell he was a former celebrity and has that catchy type personality that I think young men look up to in a sense, and find kind of fun.”
The UW-Eau Claire College Republicans also recently started a podcast called “Right on Campus” to attempt to reach young listeners. They discuss current issues and what it’s like to be conservative students on a liberal campus.
The student groups have also hosted events with Republican speakers, including former Gov. Thompson, Hovde, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, to get young voters engaged and energized.
Finally, given the competitive nature of Wisconsin, Bobrowicz said, College Republicans often encourage out-of-state UW-Eau Claire students to vote in Wisconsin instead of in their home states, and they even try to get in-state students to vote in Eau Claire instead of their hometowns.
Swirling political environment
The 2024 race comes at a politically unique time among young voters, who have exerted meaningful influence in recent high-profile elections in Wisconsin.
In 2022, young voters helped fuel Gov. Tony Evers’ reelection, which, at 3.4%, was a landslide by Wisconsin standards. Wisconsin had the highest young voter turnout in the country in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, with 48.7% of 18- to 24-year-olds casting a ballot in the election.
In April 2023, during a nationally watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race, turnout on certain college campuses exploded, according to a Washington Post analysis. The energy among young voters that spring, at least in part, helped fuel Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s commanding 11-point victory — which flipped the high court to liberal control.
But this year’s contest between Harris and Trump could feature a twist: America’s youngest voters, 18- to 24-year-olds, report being more conservative than voters even just a few years older than them.
In a Harvard Youth Poll released in September, 23% of 18- to 24-year-olds identified as conservative compared to 29% who identified as liberal. By comparison, just 19% of 25- to 29-year-olds identified as conservative while 33% identified as liberal.
There’s also a growing gender gap among young voters, according to a Gallup analysis. Between 2001 and 2007, 28% of women and 25% of men ages 18 to 29 identified as liberal. Jump ahead to the period between 2017 and 2024, and a 15-point gap appears: 40% of young women identify as liberal while just 25% of young men say the same thing.
The shifts could mean campaign messages from past cycles might not resonate on campuses the same way today.
The 2024 campaign is unfolding as many Wisconsin Republicans have become increasingly hostile toward the UW System and college students.
During the state’s most recent budget negotiations, Republican lawmakers cut the system’s funding by $32 million in an escalation of a fight over diversity, equity and inclusion programs and sendings on college campuses. They set funding aside for programs aimed at growing the state’s workforce and eventually provided it to the UW System in February 2024.
Late last year, some Republican lawmakers also signaled they didn’t want out-of-state students to vote in Wisconsin: They proposed legislation that would have required the UW System Board of Regents to provide first-year out-of-state students with an application to request a ballot to vote in their home states.
When asked whether Republican policies affecting the UW System impact students’ votes, Pyle and Bobrowicz, the College Republicans leaders, said most students likely aren’t aware of it. Deleon agreed, adding that he spoke out against the party’s attempts to discourage out-of-state college voters from voting in Wisconsin because it sends a bad message to young people.
“These hostilities are happening because of their love for the state and because of their love for this institution,” Pyle said. “I think they’ve seen some issues with it in the past, and they want to do more to protect it, ensure our institution remains a world class institution… and that our taxpayers aren’t being stuck with a burden.”
‘Margin of victory’
In the waning days of the campaign, the focus on Wisconsin campuses has increased.
During a recent trip to Wisconsin, Harris held two events on UW campuses. First, she and billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban met with a class of UW-Milwaukee business students to discuss the vice president’s proposed economic policies. Then, later that day, she and Cuban held a UW-La Crosse rally that drew a crowd of 3,000, according to an estimate from her campaign.
Earlier this month, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic candidate for vice president, made a campaign stop at UW-Eau Claire with U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin, and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minnesota.
Walz, who spoke to a group of students, was introduced by Kirsten Thell, president of the UW-Eau Claire College Democrats. Standing in front of a wall of “BLUGOLDS FOR HARRIS-WALZ” signs, Walz declared, “We need you. This is not a hyperbole. I think it’s very realistic to believe that this race will be won going through Wisconsin and going through some of these counties.”
On Wednesday, Harris will hold a get out the vote rally on UW-Madison’s campus, a campaign official confirmed to Wisconsin Watch. She’ll be joined by Gracie Abrams, Mumford & Sons and other musicians.
Prominent Republican voices have also zeroed in on college campuses. Conservative commentator and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk made a fiery visit to UW-Madison in September on the first stop of his “You’re Being Brainwashed” tour. He made another appearance over the weekend with the NELK Boys, a right-wing influencer group on YouTube.
Kirk said 120 new voters were registered in just two hours during his first visit to the UW-Madison campus.
On Tuesday, Hovde will join American Conservation Coalition Action on UW-Madison’s campus for a campaign event focused on energy policy and the economy. Tony Wied, a Republican businessman who is running for the U.S. House in the Green Bay area, will hold an early voting event on the campus of St. Norbert College, a small Catholic college in De Pere.
And while the approach from both sides is different — a centralized, coordinated effort from Democrats while Republicans rely on grassroots and allied organizations — the flurry of recent campus events underscores how valuable the votes of college voters can be.
“College students will be the margin of victory in 2024,” Lehner, the UW-Eau Claire student and College Democrats leader, predicted. “So I think young people are enthusiastic about making their voice heard.”
Wisconsin Watch reporter Khushboo Rathore contributed reporting to this story.
Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.
College students could determine who wins Wisconsin — and the White House is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.
Local campaign finance sources, by the numbers
Medicaid covers 1.2 million in Wisconsin. The election will determine its future
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- Wisconsin is home to more than 1.2 million Medicaid recipients and an estimated 310,000 people who lack insurance.
- Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have said little about Medicaid policy on the campaign trail, but their records paint drastically different possibilities for the program after the election.
- Trump’s earlier administration increased scrutiny over eligibility for recipients, allowed states to add work requirements and proposed trimming around $1 trillion over 10 years from the federal Medicaid budget — cuts that Congress did not pass in 2017.
- Harris in 2019 cosponsored the failed “Medicare for All” bill, which would have granted Americans universal coverage to replace private-pay insurance and Medicaid. She has since distanced herself from the proposal and touted record-high coverage levels during her administration with President Joe Biden.
A family stood outside the doors of St. Francis Community Free Clinic at 4:55 p.m. on a recent Monday, five minutes before it was set to open.
A volunteer receptionist switched on the Oshkosh, Wisconsin, clinic’s “open” sign and welcomed them inside. Within minutes, more patients filed into the waiting room. Volunteers called people back to see Dr. Weston Radford on a first-come, first-served basis.
The clinic technically closes at 7 p.m. on Mondays, but Radford, who volunteers here weekly, said he often stays to treat patients past 8 p.m. — 14 hours after starting his workday as an internal medicine doctor at a private clinic nearby.
Still the free clinic in its limited hours can’t reach everyone who needs it, including many who lack adequate health insurance.
“Health care is still a big need that we’re not really filling,” Radford said.
Health care is on the minds of plenty of Wisconsin residents ahead of the November election.
More than two dozen people who responded to WPR’s America Amplified project said they want politicians to prioritize health care access. Eight called for expanding access to Medicaid, the joint state and federal aid program to help low-income residents afford care.
Wisconsin is home to more than 1.2 million Medicaid recipients and an estimated 310,000 people who lack insurance.
Voters weighing their options for president have heard little from former President Donald Trump, a Republican, or Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, about Medicaid policy. Still, their past records and party affiliations paint drastically different possibilities for the program after November, according to the health policy research firm KFF.
“Medicaid and its future, whether it faces existential threats, will depend on the outcome of this fall’s federal election,” said Edwin Park, a public policy professor at Georgetown University.
Trump previously pushed Medicaid cuts
Residents could lose Medicaid access, experts say, if Trump as president successfully revives his past proposals to shrink the size of the program — leaving more low-income adults reliant on busy clinics like St. Francis.
Project 2025, a plan for a second Trump administration published by the far-right Heritage Foundation, including chapters written by former Trump administration officials, proposes major cuts to federal Medicaid spending and toughened eligibility requirements.
Those proposals align with Trump’s track record. His administration increased scrutiny over eligibility for recipients, allowed states to add work requirements and proposed trimming around $1 trillion over 10 years from the federal Medicaid budget — cuts that Congress did not pass in 2017.
Nevertheless, Trump has tried to distance himself from Project 2025.
“Only President Trump and the campaign, and NOT any other organization or former staff, represent policies for the second term,” Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser for Trump’s campaign, wrote in a statement to WPR and Wisconsin Watch.
The campaign did not respond to questions about whether Trump supports Project 2025 proposals to limit state Medicaid funding through block grants and impose lifetime limits on benefits.
“President Donald J. Trump is unwavering in his mission to lower costs for seniors and protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid,” Jacob Fischer, a Wisconsin spokesperson for Trump’s campaign, told WPR and Wisconsin Watch.
A 16-page Trump policy plan promises protections for Medicare, the government health coverage for seniors and adults with disabilities, but never mentions Medicaid.
Harris touts high Medicaid enrollment with few specifics
Meanwhile, an 82-page Harris campaign document touts record-high coverage levels during her administration with President Joe Biden, but it doesn’t articulate specific Medicaid policies.
A Harris campaign spokesperson did not directly answer when asked about specific Medicaid proposals.
“Donald Trump is campaigning on a promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act and would spike costs under his extreme Project 2025 agenda, a stark contrast from Vice President Kamala Harris’ plan to take on Big Pharma and bring down health care costs for families across Wisconsin,” Brianna Johnson, the campaign’s Wisconsin spokesperson, responded via email.
Harris pushed a more dramatic health care overhaul in 2019 while running in the Democratic presidential primary. She cosponsored the failed “Medicare for All” bill, which would have granted Americans universal coverage to replace private-pay insurance and Medicaid.
Harris has since sought to distance herself from Medicare for All. Trump has attacked Harris for having “flip flopped” on what his campaign calls a “socialist” proposal, and he has spread misleading claims about what it would have meant for immigrants who entered the country illegally.
Harris does not mention Medicare for All in her current platform. She instead describes plans to bolster Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as “Obamacare” — a law Trump has repeatedly pushed to repeal.
What does Medicaid policy mean for Wisconsin?
Wisconsin has a smaller proportion of uninsured residents than most states, but it remains among just 10 that haven’t expanded Medicaid to cover adults below 138% of the federal poverty line, around $20,800 a year for a single adult.
Adopting expansion would allow Wisconsin to extend government coverage to up to 90,900 additional adults and reap a net benefit of $1.7 billion over two years, according to a Wisconsin Policy Forum estimate.
Trump’s Affordable Care Act repeal efforts would have ended Medicaid expansion nationwide. The federal government can’t force states to expand coverage, but Congress during the Biden-Harris administration approved financial incentives to encourage expansion.
Wisconsin’s Republican-led Legislature rejected the most recent expansion proposal. Legislators have argued it would cause more residents to overly rely on the government, increase private insurance costs and burden future taxpayers.
Republican expansion critics point out that of the states that haven’t expanded Medicaid, Wisconsin is the only one without what some call a coverage gap.
That’s because the state’s Medicaid program covers low-income adults making up to the federal poverty level — the same point at which they qualify for subsidized plans on the federal Health Insurance Marketplace.
But Medicaid is seen as more comprehensive coverage than Marketplace options. Wisconsin’s Medicaid program covers dental care. But a Marketplace enrollee may need to pay an extra premium for dental coverage.
Two-thirds of respondents in a KFF poll of non-expansion states, including Wisconsin, said they favored expansion.
While voters in six Republican-led states approved Medicaid expansion through ballot initiatives since 2020, Wisconsin voters lack the ability to put referendums on the ballot.
Some experts see Wisconsin’s new electoral maps as a potential path for expansion.
This is the first election after the Wisconsin Supreme Court ordered lawmakers to draw new state Assembly and Senate district boundaries. The new maps create the possibility of Democrats gaining a majority in the state Assembly due to more competitive districts.
While a Democrat-led Senate remains unlikely, control over one chamber could still move expansion debates forward, said Philip Rocco, an associate professor of political science at Marquette University.
“Even if there’s not a victory immediately, it might create some political momentum for one to happen eventually,” Rocco said.
Radford isn’t sure why Wisconsin hasn’t expanded Medicaid, but he remains hopeful.
It would ease some of his work at his day job at the private clinic. Having more people on Medicare or Medicaid could decrease worries about denials or big out-of-pocket costs.
“It’d be nice just to be able to treat the people what we think medically is the best for them,” Radford said.
Even under expansion, plenty of Wisconsin residents will still need to visit free clinics like St. Francis.
‘We just take care of them’
Each week Radford sees patients who lack adequate private insurance, are in between coverage or can’t qualify for Medicaid because of their citizenship status.
Such needs aren’t new. Radford’s dad volunteered at St. Francis for around 30 years, spanning several presidential administrations.
While health care policies have changed over time, the clinic’s mission hasn’t. No one at the front desk asks questions about insurance or other types of payment. No one gets turned away.
“People got to be seen,” Radford said. “So we just take care of them.”
Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.
Medicaid covers 1.2 million in Wisconsin. The election will determine its future is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.