Study: Rural Homelessness Is Underestimated and Exacerbated by Opioid Epidemic

Study: Rural Homelessness Is Underestimated and Exacerbated by Opioid Epidemic

Opioid abuse and rural homelessness create a spiral for some rural residents, a new study has found.

For the study, researchers with the Rural Opioid Initiative at Georgia State University interviewed more than 3,000 people in rural communities across 10 states who had used drugs. Of those, more than half (54%) said they had experienced homelessness in the last six months. 

April Ballard, assistant professor at the Georgia State University School of Public Health, said the research suggests that the number of rural homeless is significantly larger than federal data suggests.

“Houselessness is an issue in rural areas, but it’s not talked about,” Ballard said in an interview with the Daily Yonder. “That’s largely because it looks very different than in urban areas. It can look like couch surfing, or moving from place to place. It’s hard to count in the same way that we do in urban areas.”

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development requires a nationwide “Point in Time Count” of people experiencing homelessness on a single night in January. On that day, groups of volunteers spread out to count and talk to homeless people in a community. However, Ballard said, because of the nature of rural homelessness, getting an accurate count is difficult.

“In an urban area, there are groups of people that get together and they walk around the city and they talk to people (to get the homeless count),” she said. “That can be challenging, obviously, for urban areas that are really spread out or not walkable. But in rural areas, obviously, you’re not going to go climb mountains and go in the backwoods to count people. That’s just not feasible.”

Rural people without housing may live in different situations — with relatives, or in tents, or in cars, Ballard said — instead of living in shelters or on the street. That makes finding and identifying them difficult at best. And there is a greater prevalence of homelessness because of the nature of rural community economics, she said.

“In some rural areas there are fewer economic opportunities and more economic disparities,” she said. “There’s insufficient public housing infrastructure and a limited acknowledgement of rural houselessness, which means that less money and resources go toward it.”

In one case, the researchers counted up to five times as many people experiencing homelessness in Kentucky than the “point in time” counts had identified. In three counties, the research found, the “point in time” counts estimated there were no people who were homeless, while Ballard and her group found more than 100 people in those same counties who said they had used drugs and experienced homelessness in the previous  six months.

Mary Frances Kenion, vice president of training and technical assistance with the National Alliance to End Homelessness, agrees that homelessness in rural communities is undercounted.

“Every year, communities conduct an annual ‘point in time count, which is comparable to what we see in the Census —where folks go out knocking door to door to count people,” she said in an interview with the Daily Yonder. “But how do you count people that don’t have a door to answer?”

Rural homelessness, she said, stems not only from lower economic opportunities and a lack of affordable housing, but a lack of support services as well.

“We see a lack of service providers that are really responsible for a whole range of services to the community,” she said. “We do not seem to see the same concentration of service providers that you would see in, say, metropolitan Atlanta or Washington, D.C., or New York City.”

Ballard said her team’s research also indicated that there is a link between opioid use and rural homelessness, each one feeding off of the other.

“Obviously, it’s very clear that the opioid epidemic, as well as other sorts of drugs, has just been wreaking havoc on rural America for a while now. And I would say that houselessness has been an issue in rural areas, but it’s not talked about,” she said. “These two things, I think have been happening in parallel, and as the opioid epidemic has dramatically increased, it [has led] to that kind of cycle.”

The social losses that accompany opioid use disorder, Ballard said — such as unemployment, financial ruin, and the loss of family and social networks — can lead to housing instability and homelessness. In turn, the harsh living conditions presented by homelessness can perpetuate drug use as a coping mechanism. Together the two can create a self-reinforcing cycle that contributes to poorer health and shorter lifespans.

Homelessness can also inhibit treatment and medical care, Ballard said. People  without stable housing were 1.3 times more likely to report being hospitalized for serious bacterial infection and 1.5 times more likely to overdose, the study found. Ballard said the lack of access to clean water contributed to a higher infection rate, while the prevalence of homeless people to use drugs alone increased the risk of accidental overdoses.

Although the two often overlap, Kenion cautioned against equating homelessness with drug addiction.

“I would be really careful about drawing parallels to the narrative that sometimes takes over that the majority of people experiencing homelessness are addicted to opioids or other substances, because that’s not supported by the data,” she said.

Rather, many homeless people across the country have experienced financial hardships — even one unexpected expense —that spiraled out of control and forced them from their homes, she said.

“Not a lot of people realize how folks are just often one crisis away from experiencing housing instability and homelessness, but that is felt more acutely in rural communities,” she said. “If you look at the overall snapshot, rural homelessness has actually increased by 17% between the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic and 2023. And 42% of people experiencing homelessness in rural areas are in unsheltered situations, with women and families with children being far more likely to be unsheltered outdoors.”

Both Ballard and Kenion agree that accurately counting the homeless in rural communities in necessary in order to ensure they have the services they need to get back on their feet.

Additionally, Ballard said, having an accurate count can help ensure the rural homeless who have drug abuse issues can get the help that they need.

“I feel like without that awareness, we are not allocating resources to this,” Ballard said. “From a policy standpoint, it’s incredibly important for us to be capturing accurate information and accurate estimates, so that we’re actually dedicating the right amount of resources to communities. If we are trying to stop deaths related to drug use as well as other epidemics related to HIV and hepatitis C, and we’re not considering housing status, efforts to mitigate that are not going to be as effective or as efficient.”

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Rural Wildfire Risk Doesn’t Stop New Residents

Editor’s Note: This post is from our data newsletter, the Rural Index, headed by Sarah Melotte, the Daily Yonder’s data reporter. Subscribe to get a weekly map or graph straight to your inbox.


People flee at the onset of a natural disaster. We know this. For those willing and able to leave, there’s the usual scramble. Where are my children’s baby pictures, my social security card? What do I do about my grandmother’s china?

But what happens in the weeks, months, and years following a disaster, when the ash settles and our attention shifts to the next  crisis?

In 2017, the Umpqua North Complex fires burned 43,158 acres in Douglas County, Oregon, a rural community in the southwest part of the state. Some people did leave. From 2020 to 2023, 1,100 people moved out of the county. But during the same period, 4,200 people moved into Douglas County, for a net gain of 5,400. . 

Net migration (the difference between the number of people who move to a county minus the people who leave) resulted in a gain of 20,000 residents in rural Oregon counties during the same time period. 

But this phenomenon isn’t particular to Oregon, or even the Pacific Northwest. Across the nation, people are moving to rural counties with a high risk of wildfires, according to data from Wildfire Risk to Communities, a joint project by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute of the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the Forest Service. 

Rural counties with high wildfire risk gained 2.5% of their total 2020 population in net migration between 2020 and 2023, representing a gain of 540,000 residents. Rural counties without high wildfire risk only gained about 1% of their total 2020 population in net migration, meanwhile. 

Nearly two-thirds of high risk rural counties experienced a net positive migration between 2020 and 2023 compared to only 60% of rural counties at-large.

Metropolitan areas with high risk of wildfires only gained about half a percentage point of their total 2020 population in net migration, representing an additional 1 million residents. 

The Wildfire Risk to Communities categorizes counties as high risk of wildfire if they score above the 84th percentile on their dataset’s wildfire risk index. To put it simply, counties are at high risk of wildfires if 84% of all other counties score lower than them on the index.

Nearly half (48%) of the growth in rural counties at high risk of wildfire happened in the Southeast among rural counties like coastal Georgetown, South Carolina, a popular vacation spot. 

These Southeastern counties are not places we usually picture when we think of wildfires, but fire has been a central part of the Southeastern coastal ecosystem for millions of years. Wildfires are particularly important for southern trees like the longleaf pine, which needs fire to germinate its seeds.

But Southeastern counties in general don’t rank as high on the wildfire risk index compared to rural counties in Western states. The average rural county in the South scores in the 60th percentile on the wildfire risk index, but the Coastal West, a region that includes the states of California, Oregon, and Washington, scored, on average, in the 77th percentile. 

When you signed up for “Rural Index,” I promised you one map every two weeks, but I’ve included a second one in this issue. My treat. Don’t get used to it. 

Rural counties that scored higher than the 90th percentile in the wildfire risk index had a net increase of 82,700 people between 2020 and 2023. 

In the Northwest states of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, rural counties that scored over the 90th percentile had a net migration that equaled 10% of their 2020 population, representing a net gain of about 24,000 newcomers.

The wildfire risk dataset shows a mild relationship between how a county scores on the wildfire risk index and the county’s net migration. The higher the wildfire risk index, or percentile, the greater the net migration. 

But wildfire risk only explains a small portion of the increase in net migration in recent years. Many of rural America’s riskiest counties are in picturesque regions, like the counties surrounding Zion National Park in Utah. My previous reporting for the Daily Yonder explored how areas with outdoor amenities gained population faster than other rural areas. 

I suppose now is a good time to remind you that correlation does not equal causation. Wildfires are not causing people to move to risky areas, in other words. That would be absurd. But wildfires seem to be a risk many folks don’t mind taking if it means they get to live near some of America’s most breathtaking views.

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CDC Presents a Five-Year Plan for Rural Healthcare

In September, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) unveiled its Rural Public Health Strategic Plan, which outlines the priorities, objectives and outcomes the agency hopes to see over the next five years as it collaborates with other federal agencies and various stakeholders on how to improve the health of rural residents.

The plan was developed with the help of more than 50 experts within the CDC who reviewed more than 200 rural initiatives, programs and efforts to identify opportunities. Then the agency enlisted the feedback from more than 230 federal and external partners through listening sessions, lunch meetings and town hall events, Dr. Diane Hall, the director of the CDC’s Office of Rural Health (ORH), said in an interview with the Daily Yonder.

The strategic plan is a guide for ORH and the CDC at large, as it moves forward with programs and research into rural health needs. Developed with stakeholders such as the National Rural Health Association (NRHA) and state offices of rural health, the plan seeks to combat issues that are seen at higher levels in rural communities, like obesity, chronic illnesses and substance abuse.

Opened last year, the ORH came as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Disparities between urban and rural access to care shined a spotlight on the need for more attention on rural public health, she said. The strategic plan is the office’s first major publication.

“We really wanted the strategic plan to actually be strategic, but also be actionable,” Dr. Diane Hall, the director of the CDC’s Office of Rural Health, said in an interview with the Daily Yonder. “But more than that, we wanted it to be relevant to the lives of people that live in rural communities.”

Stakeholders, like Alan Morgan, CEO of the NHRA, said the plan is an indication of what is coming in rural health. 

“Realistically, this is a blueprint for the future,” Morgan said in an interview with the Daily Yonder. “They have highlighted long-standing issues and now they have a direction and a plan to get to where they need to be.”

The plan focuses on four main priorities – engaging with community health partners, strengthening rural public health infrastructure, advancing rural public health science and improving rural public health preparedness and response.

“CDC is committed to advancing rural public health across America by identifying and addressing gaps in the evidence base, data analytic capabilities, and the workforce in rural communities,” the plan said.

Hall said her office will work alongside stakeholders and other subject matter experts to develop a more specific action plan and to determine how best to serve rural areas.

“A lot of times, rural communities haven’t really been served well by government policies or decisions,” she said. “All of that needs to be addressed when we’re talking about health decisions.”

The plan isn’t regionally or state-specific, but it is a step toward an action plan, Hall said.

“Rural health is an issue that garners bipartisan support in Congress,” Hall said. “And Congress has been very clear that they wanted the CDC to create this office. These are the first steps in a very long process to address the rural urban disparities in healthcare.”

Hall said that before the end of the year, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), part of the CDC, will release an updated method for urban-rural classification.

That will make researching rural health issues easier, Katy Backes Kozhimannil, the co-director of the University of Minnesota Rural Health Research Center, said in an interview with the Daily Yonder. One of the issues facing researchers is determining the rurality of subjects.

Although the strategic plan doesn’t provide direct actionable items, it is a step in the right direction, Kozhimannil said.

“This is a long process,” she said. “Working with local hospitals and rural public health agencies, as well as research centers like ours, is the beginning of the process. I think we’re all looking forward to the next steps and seeing what action items come out of this strategic plan.”

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New battery manufacturer in Kentucky to create more than 1,500 jobs

Gov. Andy Beshear announces a new battery manufacturing plant in Shelbyville alongside Shawn Qu, CEO of Canadian Solar, and Colin Parkin, president of e-Storage.
Gov. Andy Beshear announces a new battery manufacturing plant in Shelbyville alongside Shawn Qu, CEO of Canadian Solar, and Colin Parkin, president of e-Storage. (Screenshot / KPR)

Gov. Andy Beshear announced what he said is the third largest job announcement in Kentucky during his governorship Friday — a $712 million battery manufacturing plant in Shelbyville.

Officials said the plant would eventually become the largest employer in the city; the company is expected to hire 1,572 employees in its first three years.

“We’d already become the [electric vehicle] battery production capital of the United States, but with this investment, we’re putting our stamp on working to become just the battery capital of the United States of America,” Beshear said. “Now with Shelbyville Battery Manufacturing, we’re going to lead in the industrial electrification space.”

The two other major projects of Beshear’s administration — BlueOval SK Battery Park in Hardin County and the AESC battery manufacturing plant in Bowling Green — both produce electric vehicle batteries.

The new plant will create industrial battery cells and modules used in projects like solar and hydroelectric power generation. Shelbyville Battery Manufacturing is owned by e-STORAGE, a subsidiary of Canadian Solar Inc. which is a global renewable energy company based in Ontario.

The facility appears to be on the same site as a previously announced plant. Energy storage firm EnerVenue finished construction of the plant last year, but never began operations.

Because the one-million-square-foot factory is already largely constructed, Colin Parkin, president of e-STORAGE, said they hope to have the plant up and running by the end of next year.

“The products we will build in the Shelbyville factory will be ready, will be installed into energy storage projects nationwide by early 2026,” Parkin said. “That is, of course, a very aggressive timeline.”

The Kentucky Economic Development Finance Authority approved a 15-year incentive agreement with Shelbyville Battery Manufacturing, with up to $35 million in tax incentives — and another $5 million besides through the Kentucky Enterprise Initiative Act. The governor’s office said those incentives are based on the company’s investment and an average hourly wage of $25.34 with benefits for 15 years across the nearly 1,600 new jobs.

GOP Senate President Robert Stivers of Manchester said in a statement he celebrated the new investment.

“The General Assembly has worked to foster a pro-business environment in Kentucky, making us an attractive destination for global companies,” Stivers said. “We’ll continue this work, alongside Gov. Beshear, to keep bringing opportunity to our citizens.”

Shelby County Judge/Executive Dan Ison said he wants to increase industry in Shelby County by welcoming “quality business.”

“We don’t just open the door and say, ‘Come in, pollute our community.’ No, we get clean business. We get good business. We get good jobs,” Eisen said.

State government and politics reporting is supported in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

First TNT manufacturer to operate on American soil since 1980s to be built in Kentucky

Senator Mitch McConnell speaks Friday at an announcement of the first domestic TNT manufacturer in nearly 40 years.
Senator Mitch McConnell speaks Friday at an announcement of the first domestic TNT manufacturer in nearly 40 years.(Derek Operle / WKMS)

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made the announcement Friday alongside local and federal Kentucky officials and members of the U.S. military in Greenville, Kentucky.

During a press conference at the local VFW Post, McConnell identified trinitrotoluene – better known as TNT – as a critical explosive for Air Force weaponry, from hand grenades to aircraft bombs, and a key investment priority for the Army. That U.S. investment comes courtesy of a $435 million military contract for Repkon USA – an aerospace and defense manufacturer – to build and operate the first domestic source of the explosive chemical in the Bluegrass State.

McConnell said the future Muhlenberg County facility is part of a larger effort “to get America ready to prevent war by being strong.”

“If I had to describe where we are today, I would say it looks like before World War II,” the Republican leader said. “Let me tell you where we are: We’re up against a network, an actual network, of authoritarian regimes – North Korea, China, Russia, Iran. Iran and Iran’s proxies are all communicating with each other. They hate us, and they want to reform the world order in a way that benefits autocratic regimes.

“So a way to look at this is an impending conflict between authoritarian parts of the world and democratic parts of the world, and we have to be the lead.”

After the presentation, McConnell said that “it’s cheaper to prevent war than it is to have one” and referenced former President Ronald Reagan as he called for increased military defense spending by the U.S., calling the country’s current spending levels “nowhere near adequate.”

“We need to build up our defense industrial complex and spend more in order to avoid having to spend even more in a conflict. As Reagan said it, ‘You get peace through strength.’”

Maj. Gen. John G. Reim
Maj. Gen. John G. Reim(Derek Operle / WKMS)

Maj. Gen. John G. Reim commands the Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey, which is home to 90% of the United States Army’s lethality. He spoke in Greenville about the Army’s need to expand production capacity when it comes to 155 mm artillery – a variable type of munition that’s become a critical component in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Reim said he hopes for U.S. production of 155 mm artillery to hit 100,000 “shots” – finished rounds with a fuse, an explosively loaded steel projectile principally filled with TNT, a propelling charge and a primer – a month by 2026.

“This new TNT facility is a key part of our munitions production ramp up strategy giving us the added capacity to stay ahead of evolving threats and production requirements,” Reim said. “This history-making initiative underscores our commitment to strengthening our national security and reducing reliance on foreign sources for critical materials.”

Reim said that making TNT on American soil for the first time since 1986 is the best way to meet that commitment.

(Derek Operle / WKMS)

Repkon USA president Bryan Van Brunt said the facility will increase the resiliency of the United States by ensuring “critical capability for the U.S. military that packs explosive punch.”

“This unique facility will not be like the TNT plants of decades past,” he said. “This TNT facility is going to take advantage of state of the art automation and a novel waste neutralization process to make it one of the most high-tech, safe and environmentally friendly TNT plants ever constructed.”

The Environmental Protection Agency has identified trinitrotoluene as a possible human carcinogen. Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention links the compound with adverse health impacts like blood disorders, abnormal liver function, spleen enlargement and anemia.

Scientists have strived to develop alternatives to TNT over the past decade because of the compound’s environmental properties and its explosive sensitivity.

When asked if Repkon had considered manufacturing alternatives like IMX-101 – which got Army approval in 2010 – or BOM, Van Brunt said this will be a safer TNT facility than those of the past.

“TNT is a proven explosive that’s been used in military munitions for decades and decades. The question is whether it can be produced safely in an environmentally friendly fashion – and it can be,” he said. “One issue with TNT over many years is it’s being produced in World War II-era plants. Back then, the methods of production were a bit different. We’re going to use … the same chemical process [but] it’s a different production method altogether. There won’t be any wastewater, and it will be done in a way to not put out the pollutants.”

Van Brunt said he expects to break ground on the factory in six months with the first batches of TNT coming off the line in around three years. The planned facility in Graham, an unincorporated community of Muhlenberg County, will create around 50 permanent jobs.

McConnell called the announcement an “absolutely spectacular development” for the western Kentucky area.

“This is a breath of fresh air for Muhlenberg County, and an opportunity to be involved in something that’s extremely important for our nation,” he added.

Local officials and veterans were also on hand to celebrate the military contractor coming to the community – which has a history of producing explosives through manufacturers like Dyno Nobel, also located in Graham.

“We’ve been actually at the mercy of other countries for this product that’s going to be built here,” said Muhlenberg County Judge-Executive Mack McGehee. “This is a great day for the United States, bringing this industry back.”

Retired U.S. Army Sgt. Joe Roney – a Vietnam veteran, the senior commander of the local VFW post and a native of Powderly in Muhlenberg County – was overjoyed at the announcement.

“We’ve had explosive plants out there anyway. I think this county is going to receive this very well,” he said. “I’m one of the biggest military supporters there is. I’m happy for it.”

Copyright 2024 WKMS

In PA, Trump Improves Rural Margin Slightly, but Collapse of Urban Dem. Vote Gives Him the Win

Donald Trump reclaimed Pennsylvania and the presidency Tuesday when the urban coalition that gave Joe Biden his 2020 victory in the state failed to show up for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump won the state by 171,000 votes, primarily by eroding Democratic turnout in the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Harris earned 89,000 fewer votes in these major metropolitan areas than Biden did in 2020. Trump, meanwhile, earned about 30,000 more votes this year than he did in 2020 in those same counties in and around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. (The Daily Yonder defines major metropolitan areas as ones with 1 million or more residents.)

The difference was determinative in a state that both candidates needed to win the Electoral College vote.

On a percentage basis, Trump won in all categories of counties except in major metropolitan cities and suburbs. He lost the core counties of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (major metro) by 39 points, but that was 2 percentage points better than he did in 2020. In the suburbs of these major cities, he lost by less than a point, which was 2 points better than he did in 2020.

Trump swept the board in all other types of counties, from small rural areas to medium sized cities. And he improved on his 2020 performance in doing so. He did about 1.5 points better in medium-sized metro areas; 0.9 points better in small metros; and 0.8 points better in rural (nonmetro) counties.

Rural counties saw the least shift to Trump from 2020 to 2024, but that’s partly because his margin was already so high. Trump won 73.4% of the rural Pennsylvania vote this year, compared to 72.5% in 2020.

Medium-Sized Metropolitan Areas

In medium-sized metro areas , Trump won 38,000 more votes than he did in 2020, while Harris got 19,000 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020.

Trump won both the core counties of these metros and their suburbs by about 11 points, about 1.5 points better than he performed in 2020.

Medium-sized metros have populations of 250,000 to under 1 million. These are the cities and surrounding counties of places like Allenton, Erie, Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading, Scranton, and York.

Small Metros

Turnout was lower for both candidates in Pennsylvania’s small metropolitan areas, which have populations under 250,000. There are nine small metropolitan areas in the state, ranging from East Stroudsburg (Monroe County) in the east to Johnston (Cambria County) in the west.

In small metros, both Trump and Harris won from 25,000 to 30,000 fewer votes compared to the 2020 election.

Trump got nearly two-thirds of the votes in these counties, a slight improvement from 2020.

Rural Counties

Trump improved his percentage of the rural vote in Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point compared to 2020. Trump picked up about 17,000 additional votes compared to 2020, while Harris lost about 2,100 compared to Biden’s performance in 2020. The net change amounted to about 15,000 additional votes for Trump among rural voters.

Trump won rural counties by over 45 points.

Methodology. The Daily Yonder uses the 2013 Office of Management and Budget Metropolitan Statistical Areas to determine county categories.

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A Guide to the Rural Vote: The Places and Races to Watch on Tuesday

When the presidential results start rolling in on November 5, the usual battlegrounds will get all the attention. But the real story of the night will be hidden in rural communities across America. These aren’t just dots on the map—they’re bellwethers for how rural America will shape the outcome of the election for presidential, Senatorial, House, and state legislative elections. 

We don’t know who’s going to win on Election Night, but we are pretty sure about one thing: Pundits are going to get rural voters wrong.  

Expect to see red splashed across vast areas on TV maps, with “expert” commentary about this or that “rural” county—many of which don’t meet the definition. And when the post-mortems arrive, lackluster margins in supposedly rural states will have Democrats second-guessing their investment in rural America, all while missing key districts where rural voters delivered pivotal wins.

We’re here to help. We’ll break down the districts that actually matter and look at the counties and districts that could swing the election, helping you focus on the factors that could genuinely swing the election and shape the future of rural communities, nationwide.

Top of the Ticket: Counties to Watch on Election Night

There’s two types of rural counties – classified throughout as non-metropolitan according to the 2023 RUCC (Rural Urban Continuum Code) designation — that matter for the Harris-Trump contest: those that reversed course in the 2020 over 2016 (the flippers) and those that continued the decades long trend in Republican dominance in rural areas. 

The Flippers: 

  • Kennebec County, Maine: One of only 19 rural counties to have voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, Trump actually improved his overall support from 2016 to 48% while still losing the county. If he does worse than his 2020 numbers, expect similar desertions throughout the rural Northeast.   
  • Door County, Wisconsin. A rural county that was a part of Trump’s surprise win in 2016, Biden locked down rural voters here in 2020 and brought the whole state with him. The Harris-Walz campaign has made these marginal victories in the Midwest key; if Trump over-performs his 2020 margins (48.5%) it could be a tough night for Democrats in rural Wisconsin.   
  • Inyo County, California. Among the rural counties that flipped, voters in East-Central California, home to Death Valley, flipped the most. In just four years, Trump’s margins were cut by 3 percent and voters broke for the Democrat in 2020– the first time since 1964.  
  • Teton County, Idaho: Idaho won’t flip in 2024, but voters in this Eastern part of Idaho have proven to be exceptionally independent, voting for Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. If they swing back again, that could have broader implications beyond the presidential race, hinting at deeper shifts in rural voter alignment, even in a deeply red state.

The Long-Termers

Elections have proven remarkably volatile the last eight years, but the transformation of rural partisanship has been decades in the making. Will 2024 be an inflection point or a continuation of Democrat losses? We’d look to these counties for answers.  

  • Jackson County, Tennessee: Democrats aren’t going to win Tennessee anytime soon, and part of that is because rural communities across the rural South have deserted the party in droves. Since 2000 when the county broke for Gore, Democrats have suffered a 49 point drop in support. It went for Obama in 2008, but few rural counties have changed as much as this one…named after Andrew Jackson, a Democrat, to boot. 
  • Mingo County, West Virginia: Like Jackson County, Democrats are 47 points under where they were in 2000. One of the worst performing rural counties for Democrats, if Harris stops the bleeding it might signal some important signs for the recovery of two-party competition in this deeply red part of the country. 
  • Mower County, Minnesota: Part of Tim Walz’s old congressional district, this was a Democratic stronghold for over 40 years, but broke for Trump in 2016 (a 16-point swing over Obama!). Biden performed better, but still lost the county 52-46. We might see if Walz can do any better.  
  • Greene County, Pennsylvania: Despite predictions, it hasn’t been the case that for every voter lost in Western Pennsylvania, Democrats will get two in the suburbs – so don’t neglect trends in the far southwestern corner of the state. Just 20 years ago, Republicans and Democrats ran neck-and-neck. Trump carried it by 40 points in 2016 and 43 points in 2020. If margins close here, they might close throughout rural Pennsylvania. 
  • Lake County, Michigan: Another county that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 only to turn to the GOP in 2016. Unlike many areas in rural Michigan though, Trump added to his tally in 2020 over 2016. If he does so again, things might look like a 2016 redux across the Great Lakes region. 

Looking past “Rural States” to Understand Senate Races 

With Joe Manchin’s seat virtually conceded to the Republicans, the battle for the Senate will come down to a handful of races in states where rural votes will be decisive. 

  • Montana: All eyes will be on Montana to see if Jon Tester can keep his seat in a state where rural votes comprise about 45% of the statewide total. Tester has done comparatively well in rural counties in his previous two campaigns — 47.3% of the two-party rural vote in 2012 and 45.7% in 2018, both well ahead of Biden. Can he maintain that share in rural counties with Trump on the ballot? If he does, Tester could pull off a big surprise.
  • Ohio: Rural votes could also be decisive in Ohio as Sherrod Brown tries to stave off a strong challenge in a state that has turned deep red in the Trump era. Brown received 38.8% of the rural, two-party votes in his last election, which outperformed Tim Ryan’s Senate try in 2022 against JD Vance and Biden’s 26.7% in 2020. But Trump’s presence on the top of the ticket might draw out more Republican voters or remind them what is at stake in control of the Senate. 
  • Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin has enjoyed strong performances in rural Wisconsin in her two Senate campaigns, gaining 49.4% in 2012 and 48.6% in 2018. (If Russell Feingold in 2016 or Mandela Barnes in 2022 had done as well in rural Wisconsin as Baldwin, either could have defeated Ron Johnson) Baldwin also ran about 10 points better than Biden. With the polls tightening in this race, another strong showing in rural counties, which comprise about one-quarter of the state’s electorate, can assure her of a third term.
  • Michigan: This state features an open seat, and rural counties comprise about 17% of the statewide vote. Debbie Stabenow gained 41.2% of the rural vote in 2018 but Gary Peters fell to 37.2% with Trump on the top of the ticket in 2020. Both outpolled Biden’s 2020 performance of 35.8%. Elissa Slotkin can’t afford a bigger falloff in rural counties and hope to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
  • Nebraska: Independent candidate Dan Osborn is running a surprisingly competitive race against incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer. Polls show Osborn holding a narrow lead, driven by his strong appeals to rural voters, who are frustrated with the current political establishment and who feel ignored by Washington. While a win might not tilt the balance of Senate control, an Osborn victory goes to show that rural politics is so much more than a cult of Trump. Rural communities are not monolithic in their support for the GOP but are seeking representation that genuinely reflects their interests and frustrations with the status quo. 

Control of the House

Many of the races both parties are targeting for control of the House of Representatives feature significant shares of rural voters. In fact, rural voters could well determine which party controls the U.S. House. Key races will also show if any new ways of attracting rural votes have succeeded for the Democrats or if Republicans will maintain a hold on rural America.

  • Maine 2: Democrat Jared Golden represents a district where 63.8% of the votes in his narrow 2022 victory over Austin Theriault came from rural counties. It will be interesting to see if Blue Dog Golden can hang on to this seat with Trump on the ballot.
  • Colorado 3: Adam Frisch narrowly lost to Lauren Boebert in this district two years ago and is back this time to face Republican Jeff Hurd after Boebert relocated to another district. In Colorado 3, 57.5% of the votes in 2022 came from rural counties.
  • New York 19: In another 2022 rematch, incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro will face off again against Democrat Josh Riley. Molinaro won by fewer than 5,000 votes in this district where 48% of the votes are in rural counties.
  • North Carolina 1: Incumbent Don Davis is trying to hold this seat for the Democrats in a district where nearly one-half of the vote last election was rural. Many of the counties in this district have higher shares of African American voters which will help his chances.
  • Iowa 1: This 2022 rematch pits incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks won by 7 points in 2022 when 40.3% of the votes were from rural counties.
  • New Mexico 3: Gabe Vasquez is the incumbent Democrat in this district where 37.3% of the votes were rural last election. Some of the rural counties in this district have higher percentages of Hispanics and Native Americans where he did very well two years ago.

Of course, these aren’t the only races worth watching. Across the country, crucial battles are unfolding on state ballots, from gubernatorial contests, state referenda, to down-ballot races for state legislatures and local offices. There too, rural voters will be pivotal, if given the chance. Over 38% of all state legislative races are uncontested, many of those in rural America where Democrats haven’t even found a candidate to place on the ballot. But take note of Wisconsin where in a surprise turn of events, Democrats have placed a candidate for every single state Senate contest and all but two of the 99 ballots for state assembly. Whether these rural contests will flip the script or reinforce existing divides it’s a reminder that every race should be fought, because real competition strengthens democracy, holds politicians accountable, and ensures rural voters have the representation they deserve.

So this Election Night, let’s keep the focus on the places that matter: the districts where rural votes will truly decide the outcome and who might give us glimpses into a different political future for rural communities. Instead of fixating on where Democrats fall short, we should be looking at the places where rural voters are exercising their clear-minded independence and where candidates are working to restore two-party competition. These are the contests that will tell us more about the future of American politics than the losses. 


Nicholas F. Jacobs is an assistant professor of government at Colby College and the co-author, with Daniel M. Shea, of The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America. Robin A. Johnson is a governmental relations, public policy, and political consultant and host of the radio program and podcast “Heartland Politics.”

The post A Guide to the Rural Vote: The Places and Races to Watch on Tuesday appeared first on The Daily Yonder.

Kentucky officials say no evidence of pre-marked ballots shared in ‘Libs of TikTok’ post

A ballot that was deemed spoiled by a Hardin County voter — a routine part of any election according to the clerk — when the voter accidentally marked the wrong box.
A ballot that was deemed spoiled by a Hardin County voter — a routine part of any election according to the clerk — when the voter accidentally marked the wrong box.(Justin Hicks / KPR)

Right-wing social media accounts, including “Libs of TikTok,” are sharing a viral post alleging “weird ballot shenanigans” over a photo that appears to show a small printed dot in the box next to Vice President Kamala Harris’s name on a Kentucky ballot.

It is unclear who initially posted the image, but it has been reposted widely without attribution on Facebook as well as X, formerly known as Twitter.

The Kentucky State Board of Elections said in a statement Monday that no one has presented any such ballots to election officials or law enforcement.

“(The) claim that at least one ballot may have had a pre-printed mark in Kentucky, currently only exists in the vacuum of social media,” the elections board said.

The accounts online allege that the dot would automatically invalidate any voter who chose to vote for a candidate other than Harris. Because the picture appears to show a ballot with a crease down the middle, it is likely a mail-in absentee ballot.

The elections board noted that all such ballots come with an instruction sheet, telling voters that they can circle their preferred choice if more than one candidate is marked with ink. Voters can also “spoil” a ballot, and request another.

“Whether they are using a paper mail-in absentee ballot or an in-person paper ballot, Kentucky law allows voters to register their vote should a situation like the one alleged on social media involving a pre-marked ballot actually exist,” the state elections board said.

According to Kentucky Secretary of State spokesperson Michon Lindstrom, the scanner would spit out the ballot as an overvote and inform the voter. For mail-in ballots, the local county board of elections may fill out a new ballot if they can “clearly see voter intent,” like in this case, although each county clerk could act differently.

Several nearly identical posts were shared on Facebook, claiming to have seen the ballot. One such post was shared roughly 23,000 times. The post also claims to have an update — that “someone reported an in-person ballot with the dot” and they had to redo the ballot. Election officials said Monday that is not the case.

Several nearly identical posts with an image of the alleged pre-marked ballot have spread on Facebook, with tens of thousands of
Several nearly identical posts with an image of the alleged pre-marked ballot have spread on Facebook, with tens of thousands of shares.(Sylvia Goodman / Screenshot)

The elections board noted that hundreds of thousands of Kentuckians have already voted, either with mail-in or early in-person ballots.

“As of today, the State Board of Elections, nor the Attorney General’s office, has been made aware of any complaints from Kentucky voters regarding their in-person (or mail-in) absentee ballots having pre-printed marks in candidate selection fields.”

Another viral social media video also alleged a voting malfunction in Kentucky this election. Officials said the incident was due to voter error, and the person was able to properly cast their ballot. Posts about that incident are still circulating online.

These latest posts are reminiscent of claims of voter fraud when Trump claimed the election was “stolen” from him after he lost to President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump has still refused to acknowledge his loss.

Adams, who was secretary of state in 2020 as well assures Kentuckians the state’s elections are secure.

The State Board of Elections encouraged anyone who encounters a voting error to contact their county clerk and the Attorney General’s office.

Find more information on candidates and how to vote with Louisville Public Media’s interactive voter guide.

State government and politics reporting is supported in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Nationally, Republicans Are the Ones Running Unopposed in Rural. For MA It’s the Opposite. 

In a highly competitive presidential election year, candidates for state and local office in rural areas know that every vote counts. While so-called down-ballot races frequently go uncontested, Democrats and Republicans alike are switching their strategies to contest candidates who would otherwise run unopposed in rural districts.

Historically, voters in rural districts in places like Missouri, New York, and North Carolina have had one option as they move down the ballot: a Republican. But this year, Democrats are running their own candidates and contesting Republicans in red rural districts.

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There’s one place though, where the reverse is true.

In Massachusetts’ three rural counties, it is the Democrats who typically run for state and local office without opposition. This year, new leadership in the Massachusetts Republican Party – Mass GOP – is working to change that. Among the races the party is paying closest attention to are those in the state’s rural districts. 

“We’re definitely more committed to down-ballot candidates than the party has been in the last two election cycles,” Mass GOP Executive Director John Milligan told the Daily Yonder.

Massachusetts has elected Democrats in every presidential race since 1984, when voters cast their ballots to elect Ronald Reagan for a second term. Currently, the state’s delegation to Congress is completely blue. At the state level, there is a supermajority of Democrats, who control both sides of the state legislature. 

For candidates like David Rosa in the Western part of the state, the supermajority is a real issue. 

“Our one-state party is really a dilemma for all concerned,” Rosa said in an email to the Daily Yonder. 

Rosa is running for State Senate to represent Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin, and Hampshire, a rural district in Western Massachusetts. Rosa will be on the ballot next to incumbent Paul Mark, who has held the office since 2022 – where he won against a candidate unaffiliated with either party. 

For those living in Franklin County, Massachusetts – which is among the counties in the Senate district where Rosa is running, the choices will narrow as voters move down the ballot. In Franklin County’s first state representative district, a Democrat runs unopposed. There are no Republican challengers further down either. Democrats are the only ones running candidates for lower offices like Clerk of Courts and Register of Deeds in Franklin County.

Milligan said the uncontested races in Franklin County are symbolic of the GOP’s struggles in rural parts of the region as a whole. Milligan said understanding that the rural populace in Massachusetts looks quite different from other parts of the country is essential to succeeding in these races.

“I don’t think the population of Nantucket matches the population of rural Pennsylvania,” Milligan said. 

On the other side of the state, Republican State Senate candidate Christopher Lauzon is making connections with small-town Massachusetts voters in an attempt to build a broad coalition. Lauzon is running in the Cape and Islands district, which includes Barnstable and the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. The district is another one where Democrats dominate.

The post office in Hyannis, Massachusetts, a small town in a district where some Democrats run unopposed for state and local-level offices representing Cape Cod and the Islands. (Image: Roger Tilton)

Lauzon will be one of the only Republican candidates for a state-level office on the ballot in Cape Cod and the Islands. A Democrat, Thomas Moakley, is uncontested for State Representative, and no Republicans are on the ballot for local-level offices in Dukes County (Martha’s Vineyard) or Nantucket County. 

On the ground, Lauzon said his campaign is focused on building a broad coalition across what he described as a varied geographic district with different communities. 

“Obviously, national politics can complicate things, but I really try to separate the local from the national,” Lauzon said. “No matter who wins the presidential race, no matter who you support for that, your local races have a much larger impact.”

The post Nationally, Republicans Are the Ones Running Unopposed in Rural. For MA It’s the Opposite.  appeared first on The Daily Yonder.

Kentucky school district pulls books from shelves in reaction to conservative group mailer

A far western Kentucky public school system pulled some books from its high school library shelves after a mailer in support of the state’s so-called “school choice” amendment was sent out earlier this week questioning whether they were appropriate for students.
A far western Kentucky public school system pulled some books from its high school library shelves after a mailer in support of the state’s so-called “school choice” amendment was sent out earlier this week questioning whether they were appropriate for students.(Contributed photo / Ronda Gibson)

Some Ballard County residents received a mailer titled “Just Look What Your Tax Dollars Bought for Ballard County Public Schools” that quoted sexually explicit passages from a trio of books the group deemed obscene.

A social media post made by the district Wednesday said that the books had been removed from the high school library’s shelves in reaction to the mailer. In a subsequent interview, Ballard County Schools superintendent Casey Allen confirmed that the decision was a direct reaction to the controversial postcard.

Casey Allen
Casey Allen

“The explicit language that was printed on the card and sent to homes not by us, to me, was enough information that I needed to pull those from the shelves, at least for now,” Allen said. “I know that some people will act shocked … but I don’t know every book that’s in the two libraries that we have, and I didn’t know that these books were in there. However, no one in the two days since that mailer went out has challenged the books.”

A bill passed in 2022 – sponsored by Republican state Sen. Jason Howell of Murray – mandated that school districts have a process in place when it comes to material challenges. It also defined what sort of material can be classified as “harmful to minors.” That bill passed into law without Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s signature.

Ballard County Schools had a procedure for challenges more than five years before that law went into effect. Allen said only one item has been challenged since it was put in place, and that it was removed from the school’s library.

The works cited on the card included Susan Kuklin’s “Beyond Magenta,” a collection of interviews with teens on transgender identity; the young adult mystery “Shine,” a novel by Lauren Myracle that follows a teenage girl investigating a hate crime involving the beating and near-death of her LGBTQ friend; and Alice Sebold’s memoir “Lucky,” in which the author describes being sexually assaulted as a teen.

All three have been the focus of challenges to materials in libraries across the country since their publications. Kuklin penned an essay that was shared on NPR in 2022 about her work and challenges to it. She said then that people taking passages out of context is mostly what’s led to her book’s controversial reputation.

The back of the mailer, which quotes sexually explicit passages of the three works being called into question.
The back of the mailer, which quotes sexually explicit passages of the three works being called into question.(Contributed photo / Ronda Gibson)

“So what they do is they’ll pick a paragraph from the story, whether it’s bad language — because kids curse — or whether it’s a story of someone’s life,” she told NPR. “They take it out of context, and then they turn — they complain about that, that the whole book should be banned and everything that’s in it because of a paragraph here or a word there … people took [one] chapter and that story and turned it around into something very negative and very ugly.”

The district’s post indicated all three of the books it removed had been in the library since at least 2016, with the oldest of the three works having been on the school library’s shelf for more than two decades. It also indicated that none of the three books had been checked out recently.

Allen, a former English teacher, added that students “need to be exposed to information on all sides” and said – though it was “shocking to see … printed on a card and sent directly to people’s homes” – that it’s important to consider the context of the language being quoted on the mailer.

“It’s still shocking language, but a book that is written by [someone who’s] a victim of rape when she was 18 years old, you might expect to have shocking language,” the superintendent said. “So to pull an excerpt from that, print it on a card and send it to someone’s home without explaining why someone was using language like that strikes me as being a little bit misleading, or at least disingenuous.”

The mailers were sent by Conservatives for the Commonwealth, a social welfare group with a mailing address in southcentral Kentucky. It urged people to “support school choice.” Kentuckians will vote on Amendment 2 in November, a ballot measure that would allow public funds to go toward private education.

Allen has been a vocal opponent of the ballot measure. He believes that it will drain resources from rural school districts like Ballard County.

“It just feels like a fight constantly to keep what we’ve got,” Allen said in an August interview. “But it’s a fight worth fighting.”

WPSD Local 6 obtained a statement from Conservatives for the Commonwealth earlier this week about the mailer and its purpose. In it, the group called the materials in question “pornographic.”

“We wanted to make sure citizens know that even in many rural communities, public schools are not immune to ideological and inappropriate materials in classrooms and schools,” it read. “These books were paid for with taxpayer dollars. These same school districts are telling their citizens to oppose school choice, while their children are subjected to outrageously sexual content in their own schools.”

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